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Jera Conde

Australian economic update June 2026

Jera Conde · Jul 7, 2026 ·

The big picture

Middle East tensions ease

When we look around at all of the troubles in the world, it might seem somewhat incongruous. Yet all three major Wall Street indexes reached multiple record highs in May.

Markets are based on expectations, however. The US March quarter reporting season, which was just underway, was rather good, including forward guidance. It wasn’t just Magnificent 7 (Mag7) or Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks either.

The easing situation in the Middle East has likely helped too, though not quickly enough for most. A ceasefire remains ‘blurred’ at best, but no one has officially rescinded it. The Iran news agency, Fars, counters Trumps comments. Other news, however, filters out that an end to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be at hand. One line of commentary suggests negotiators are separating the Strait’s reopening issue from other big issues, like nuclear proliferation, to try to reach an initial agreement.

Three months have passed since the start of the Middle East war. Many had billed the war as likely to last just 2 to 6 weeks. On one day in May, Iran allowed two China bound tankers to exit the Strait. Each carried a million barrels of oil on board.

RBA raises rates again

When we put the war to one side, order seems to be returning to the global economy, albeit slowly. The RBA announced a third straight increase in interest rates of 25 bps to 4.35%. The governor, Michele Bullock, made two important statements. First, she said it would take at least six months before inflation felt any impact from the recent interest rate rises. She still ‘wants to get ahead of the fight on inflation’ too. She wants to dampen any inflation expectations that might ensue from those that followed the onset of war.

Dr Sarah Hunter, chief economist to the RBA, gave a speech on inflation. She said that causing a recession, as in 1990/91, might be necessary to quell it. She earned her BA in 2002, so the chances are she was in primary school and living in the UK during that big recession (we had to have one). This raises a question: is a recession really the right solution to a relatively tame inflation problem?

Our latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading came in at 4.2% p.a. down from 4.6% p.a. in the December quarter. Inflation fell in less than six months from the RBA rate action, which means the RBA can claim no part in that success, nor should it. As we have been arguing, the oil price spike will pass, and it has partly done so already. Interest rates in Australia have no impact on global oil prices anyway.

Inflation, rebates and the rate outlook

We continue to take our analysis a step further, and we object to the use of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) method to adjust electricity prices from the impact of the energy rebates. Electricity price inflation came in at 22.5% from 25.4% because of the ‘rebate adjustment’. The ABS reported that the rate of this component of inflation would have only been 3.1% without the adjustment.

Our own calculations show the 4.2% headline CPI inflation read for April would have been 3.7%. The prior four months read 3.4%, 3.2%, 3.0% and 4.1% for December 2025 through to March 2026, respectively. On this basis, the RBA should not have raised interest rates three times this year. The ‘oil blip’ is already passing, though we could still see materially higher oil prices if the Iran war is not resolved in the nearer term. We emphasise that the February 3.0% reading was in the RBA target zone.

As a result, the most recent three interest rate increases are yet to work their way through the system. They will weigh on an already weakening economy as they do.

Labour market and policy risks

Our labour force report for April followed the inflation read. The unemployment rate jumped from 4.3% to 4.5%, making it the highest rate since 2021. An alarming upward trend in the unemployment rate started in mid-2022. Total employment fell in April by -18,600 and full-time positions fell by -10,700.

The Federal government seems intent on changing capital gains tax settings and the use of negative gearing. Both changes appear aimed at transferring wealth to those who won’t inherit it.

New Zealand recently tried removing negative gearing, with very poor responses on the rental market. Keating’s two-year experiment with removing negative gearing in 1985 also came with disastrous results. The lessons have not been learnt!

The RBA rate tracker tool on the ASX website now estimates 0% odds of an interest rate increase at the RBA’s June 16th meeting.

We think the RBA needs to rapidly unwind the three interest rate increases it has already imposed this year. It should then start lowering the OCR (overnight cash rate) toward neutral, or about 150 bps below where it stood at the end of May.

US labour market and consumer sentiment

US jobs’ data for April were stronger than expected. Employers created 115,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. However, there is still a strong downward trend in the 12-month averages of the monthly jobs’ numbers.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit a record low on release in April, then fell even further in May. The revision to that 74-year low took the latest index down from 48.2 to 44.8.

Social media may explain why that measure of consumer sentiment is lower than during the GFC and the 1987 stock market crash. It is even lower than during various wars fought around the Middle East. Information, good and bad, true and untrue, now travels the globe at unprecedented speed.

Fed policy and bond yields

US inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE), came in elevated but on expectations. The oil price spike took Brent Crude oil prices from $US61 per barrel at the start of the year to a peak of $US114 per barrel. Prices ended May at $US92.

Trump nominated the new Fed chair, who replaced Jerome Powell in May, with a view to bringing interest rates down. It is doubtful the new appointee, Keven Warsh, can make that wish come true. There are 18 other committee members who will express their largely unsupportive opinions at the June 16th to 17th FOMC meeting.

Importantly, the yield on US Treasurys, or US government bonds, at 10- and 30-years duration rose to uncomfortably high levels. It slipped a little only at the end of May.

The CME Fedwatch tool shows the market has factored in a 99% chance of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) staying ‘on hold’ in June. It estimates nearly a 50% chance of a hike later in the year.

China’s tariffs and trade

China’s economy has had to withstand a barrage of problems since US President Trump took office last year. The US has since rescinded his sweeping tariffs, but plenty of product-specific tariffs remain in place.

China had amassed an impressive inventory of oil, which must now be dwindling. It usually gets much of its oil from the Persian Gulf.

China reported retail sales growth of only 0.2% over the year, compared to an expected 2.0%. Industrial output performed better at 4.1%, compared to an expected 5.7%.

Wall Street has largely shrugged off the problems in the Middle East. All three major indexes hit record highs in May despite the uncertainty. Impressive results in AI, data centres and software no doubt buoyed the market, and many other strong results made the continued rally reasonably broad-based.

Asset classes

Australian equities

Australian equities (ASX 200) had a very quiet month compared to several other major indices. It grew only +0.8% in May making for a change of +0.2% over the year-to-date.

However, several sectors of the broader index made strong gains: Materials (+10.5%), Consumer discretionary (+4.6%), Property (+3.0%), Industrials (+2.0%) and IT (+0.6%) were the only ones of the 11 sectors to make gains in May.

International equities

The S&P 500 gained +5.1% in May and Japan’s Nikkei posted an +11.9% gain. The German DAX gained +3.3% and London’s FTSE was all but flat at +0.3%. China’s Shanghai Composite lost -0.1% in May. Emerging Markets gained +9.5% in the month.

Over the year-to-date, a couple of indexes have made stellar gains: Nikkei (+31.8%) and Emerging Markets (+26.0%). The S&P 500 gained +10.7% over the year-to-date.

Bonds and interest rates

The general mood across central banks, except for the RBA, has been to retain a holding pattern while the impact of oil price inflation is analysed.

The RBA, in an 8-1 decision, chose to raise interest rates again by 25bps to 4.35%. No other comparable central bank has raised interest rates at all in recent times. The RBA must understand it is on its own in following an aggressive interest rate tightening path. The Fed, for example, has even gone as far as saying it is on hold because ‘it is looking through’ the oil price inflation. RBA Governor Bullock keeps saying that she is trying to get ahead of the inflation problem.

The Royal Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was on hold at 2.25% compared to our latest rate at 4.35%. We would place the RBNZ policy stance at being slightly under the neutral rate, meaning it is trying to facilitate growth. The RBA is about 1.5% points above neutral.

Other assets

Brent Crude (-19.3%) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (-16.9%) oil prices were down sharply on rumours that the Strait of Hormuz might be re-opened soon.

The price of copper was up strongly at +4.6%. Iron ore was down -2.2% and gold was flat at -0.6%.

The VIX US share market volatility index ended May in the normal range at 15.3 after peaking at 31.1 earlier in 2026.

The Australian dollar appreciated by +0.7% against the US dollar over May.

Regional review

Australia

The unemployment rate jumped sharpy to 4.5% from 4.3%, making it the highest rate since 2021 and a continuation of a strong upward trend since mid-2022.

Jobs growth over the year to April was only +0.9%, well below a rate necessary to achieve population growth. Full-time jobs also grew slowly at +1.2%.

The Federal Budget was met with much derision. Reverting the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) formula, taxing gains only above the rate of inflation, was not unreasonable, but creating a minimum tax rate for capital gains of 30% is out-of-left-field and causing significant voter pushback.

Negative gearing was also on the chopping block. However, such is the backlash, there have been calls for changes before the bill goes to parliament and even for a general election!

Electricity rebate confusion still mars inflation data, and elevated oil prices have added to the problem. However, the latest CPI inflation headline was down to 4.2% from 4.6%. We estimate that without the electricity rebate, CPI inflation would have been 3.7%, comparable to that in the US (3.8%). The Fed, however, has remained ‘on hold’ all year at a rate of 3.5% to 3.75%.

The wage price index grew by 3.3% over the last 12 months, but the real wage, after allowing for CPI inflation, went backwards at -0.8%. The purchasing power of the average wage is back to where it was 15 years ago!

China

China reported only +0.2% growth in retail sales compared to an expected +2.0%.

Industrial output was up +4.1% compared to an expected 5.7%.

China did manage to get two million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on just one day in May.

United States

Jerome Powell chose to stay on as a governor of the Fed after his term as chair expired. We think he will play a very supportive role for the rest of the committee. His desire to remain for up to two years stems from his claim that he wants to wait out ongoing legal proceedings. Trump’s supporters have been waging these against him over the Fed building refurbishment.

Trump went to China to meet with President Xi and was accompanied by a few mega-tech CEOs. There were no positive outputs reported from the meeting.

Trump brought in his 10% global tariffs after the Supreme Court quashed his ‘reciprocal tariffs’. The Court has now ruled these replacement tariffs illegal too. Trump’s tariff policy is in tatters, and he now has little tariff revenue to support his policies. We think this is good for the economy. The revenue was coming from households and businesses, not, as Trump claimed, from foreign exporters to the US.

Europe

EU inflation came in at 3.0% from 2.6%. Core inflation was 2.2% from 2.3%.

UK growth was +0.6% in the March quarter from +0.2% in the December quarter. The UK unemployment rate inched up to 5.0% for the three months to March. Inflation, however, fell to 2.8% from 3.3%.

Rest of the world

The unrest continues in the Middle East, but at a much lower level than in the first two months of the war.

Japan growth was 0.5% for the March quarter following 0.2% in the December quarter. Inflation (ex-food) was 1.4%, down from 1.7% in the previous month.

The biggest sporting event in the world, the FIFA World Cup, starts in mid-June for about a month. The group stage matches are being held in the US, Mexico and Canada.

Ticket sales have not met expectations, largely it seems because of the pricing. Other reports suggest foreigners are wary about visiting the US during Trump’s unstable immigration policies.

Spain and France are almost joint favourites to lift the trophy with England in third place. Perennial achievers, Brazil, has odds of 10 to 1, Australia at 500 to 1 and NZ at 1,500 to 1. Haiti brings up the rear at 3,000 to 1.

Smart EOFY moves that balance tax planning and long-term goals

Jera Conde · Jun 30, 2026 ·

As the end of the financial year approaches, many people turn their attention to tax planning opportunities. Reviewing contributions and considering deductions are common steps. But EOFY is also a useful moment to reflect more broadly on your financial position.

Tax outcomes matter. They are, however, only one part of a broader financial picture. Decisions made quickly at this time of year can carry longer-term implications, particularly when overall goals are not part of the conversation.

Looking beyond short-term tax outcomes

EOFY deadlines can create a sense of urgency. That urgency can push decisions toward immediate tax benefits rather than longer-term objectives. Building wealth, maintaining flexibility, and preparing for retirement all deserve a seat at the table too.

Keeping the bigger picture in focus

EOFY works well as a checkpoint. It’s a natural moment to step back and consider whether current strategies still align with longer-term priorities. That might mean reflecting on financial arrangements, investment approaches, or savings strategies to confirm they continue to support your evolving goals and circumstances.

Understanding the trade-offs

Most EOFY strategies involve trade-offs. Actions that reduce taxable income now may also lock funds away or reduce access to capital later. Recognising these dynamics helps put individual decisions into their proper context. A strategy that looks attractive in isolation may look different when you consider the full picture.

A balanced perspective

EOFY is better understood as part of an ongoing financial journey than as a last-minute deadline. A measured approach balances tax considerations with long-term thinking. Over time, that balance tends to produce more consistent and sustainable outcomes.

As the new financial year approaches, this period offers a genuine opportunity to reset and reflect. The goal is to ensure financial decisions remain aligned with what matters most, both now and into the future.

End of financial year planning checklist: What you should be doing now

Jera Conde · May 26, 2026 ·

With the end of the financial year fast approaching, now is a great time to pause and take stock of your finances. A simple review now can help ensure you’re organised, informed, and ready for 30 June.

Get your financial information in order

Start by gathering your key documents. Pull together income details, bank statements, investment records, and any supporting paperwork. Having everything in one place makes tax time easier. It also gives you a clearer picture of your overall financial position.

Review your expenses and records

Go through your expenses and check that your records are complete and up to date. Gaps in record-keeping tend to surface at EOFY. Catching them now avoids unnecessary stress later.

Reflect on the past 12 months

Beyond the admin, EOFY is a valuable opportunity to check in on your standing. Has your income changed? Have you made new investments or adjusted your portfolio? Are your finances still aligned with your goals? A quick review can flag anything that needs attention before the year wraps up.

Review your investment activity

Look at any investment activity over the year. Note the income you received and any changes you made to your portfolio. A clear picture of this activity makes it easier to track performance and stay on top of your broader financial plan.

Prepare for the year ahead

EOFY isn’t just about closing out the year. It’s also about setting yourself up for what comes next. Reviewing where things stand now helps you step into the new financial year with greater clarity, confidence, and control.

Speak with your adviser

If you’re unsure where to start or want a better understanding of your current position, your adviser can help. Getting in touch before 30 June means there’s still time to act on anything that needs attention.

How do interest rates affect your finances?

Jera Conde · May 19, 2026 ·

Interest rates play an important role in everyday financial life, influencing everything from your mortgage and savings to overall household spending.

When Rates Rise

When interest rates increase, borrowing typically becomes more expensive. This can lead to higher loan repayments, particularly for variable-rate mortgages, and may place additional pressure on household budgets.

You may also notice indirect effects. Higher borrowing costs can influence rental markets, business costs and the broader price of goods and services, meaning even those without loans may feel the impact.

Higher interest rates can also bring some positives. Savers may benefit from improved returns on savings accounts and term deposits, helping balances grow more quickly over time.

The overall effect of interest rate movements depends on your individual circumstances, particularly whether you are more impacted by borrowing costs or savings returns.

Why Interest Rates Change

Interest rates are adjusted to help manage the economy, particularly inflation, or the rising cost of living.

When inflation is higher, interest rates may increase to help slow spending. When conditions ease, rates may stabilise or decrease to support economic activity.

Taking the Long View

Interest rates will continue to move over time as part of normal economic cycles. While changes can create uncertainty in the short term, taking a broader view of your finances can help maintain confidence and stability.

Staying aware of how your finances are structured and how they respond to change can help you feel more in control, regardless of the environment.

Economic update: May 2026

Jera Conde · May 12, 2026 ·

In this month’s update, we provide a snapshot of economic occurrences both nationally and from around the globe.

Key points:

  • Ceasefire talks drag on, but Wall Street has rebounded strongly
  • The RBA increased the cash rate to 4.35%, the third increase so far this year
  • Inflation spikes as oil prices jump
  • Consumer confidence has fallen sharply in both the US and Australia

We hope you find this month’s Economic Update as informative as always. If you have any feedback or would like to discuss any aspect of this report, please contact your Financial Adviser.

The big picture

The S&P 500 and the ASX 200 have each suffered two important setbacks during the Trump second term (to date). The first correction was a result of a poorly thought-out tariff policy for US imports. The S&P 500 bounced back from the April 4th 2025 delay in the reciprocal tariff implementation. The ASX 200 followed suit.

The S&P 500 charged up 37% while the ASX 200 gained a creditable 25%, to arrive at their February 2026 highs. These important gains were made while Trump policy uncertainty clouded the outlook.

The war between the US and Iran on the one hand, and Israel and Lebanon on the other, caused both indices to fall between 8% and 9% from February 27th before another strong retracement, especially on the part of the US index. That index rose 14% in a quicker retracement than that which followed the tariff uncertainties. The ASX 200 rose 6% in around the same time frame but it stalled from early April.

While there is some sort of ceasefire in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz has largely been closed to shipping, trade that typically accounts for about 20% of the global oil supply in addition to key fertilizers and industrial chemicals.

The fact that both sets of strong recoveries occurred during a high degree of uncertainty suggests that the market was, and is, looking through these incidents to strong underlying fundamentals. Recent earnings reports in the US have been strong, and the AI boom is largely intact.

While most agree that the AI technology will be transformational, it is difficult to analyse the projected spend on data centres. No one realistically knows how much compute (yes, compute has become a noun replacing ‘computing power’) will be needed. There is also confusion about possible overlap and interaction among different company projections. There could be some important disruptions to these projections in years to come, but not yet, we think.

Another strong sign in market behaviour over ‘Trump 2.0’ is a rotation from the Magnificent 7 ‘mag 7’ US mega tech companies dominating market gains to a much broader-based rally. Even the Russell 2000 index, representing US small cap stocks, has also performed strongly in recent times.

There are two big takeaways from the last 12-15 months of market behaviour. Investors who were ill-prepared for what was to come possibly sold out in fear at the start of the two big drops in the indexes, and then possibly were too late into getting back into the market. They would have lost more compared to those that stood their ground.

The second takeaway is related to the first. Whatever we all thought about Trump being elected in November 2024, we have all learnt now that Trump is making far more erratic and frequent decisions than in his first term. We argued all along that the tariff policy was ill-advised and the US Supreme Court overturned a large part of that policy. Companies are now in the process of trying to claim back the taxes (tariffs are nothing but taxes) they were illegally charged.

General Motors (GM) is reportedly looking to claim back about 400-500 million dollars of tariff revenue. Jack Daniels, the iconic distillery, made substantial losses through its trade with Canada. When Trump threw around seemingly random numbers for new tariffs with Canada (and claiming Canada should be part of the US going forward), Canadians simply stopped buying the product in retaliation. There are surely many other cases of economic loss.

The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, recently claimed Trump had been exposed by Iran over his attack. As the adage goes, it is easy to invade a country, it is difficult to make a successful exit even if one had a plan. No one seems to be aware of Trump’s plan, if indeed he had one. Since Trump started the attack without consultation with possible allies, it would make no sense for other countries simply to follow Trump into battle. Allies need a co-ordinated, well-thought-out plan. When troops first invaded Kuwait in the first Gulf War, only 40% of those troops were American!

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Jerome Powell, said goodbye to the press corps after his final post-FOMC (Federal Open Markets Committee) media conference, but he emphasised he’s not leaving the Board of Governors yet. He vowed to stay on until the legal issues surrounding him have gone away. He promised to keep a low profile.

The Fed kept interest rates on hold at 3.50% to 3.75% in an 8-4 split vote. There have not been four dissensions in the voting since October 1992! However, only one person voted for a rate cut: Stephen Miran, Trump’s recent appointee. The other three dissenters wanted to remove the statement that the Fed was on an easing bias (in favour of a neutral stance) going forward. The Fed and markets are now in agreement about a multi-meeting period of interest rates being ‘on hold’.

Powell reiterated that he believes the US economy is experiencing solid growth and that the unemployment rate is low. The latest GDP growth number at the end of April for the March quarter 2026 was 2.0% (annualised) and 2.7% year-over-year.

Just before the FOMC decision was handed down, the Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Fed chair progress to the full Senate Committee for confirmation in the week of May 11. Warsh, as did Powell, argued that he will stand up to pressures from Trump.

The consensus seems to be that there may be no change in the Fed funds interest rate for the rest of this year. Powell thinks it is far too early to say how long the high global oil prices that have elevated inflation will continue. The Fed is watching inflation, tariffs and oil prices closely.

We think it is quite possible that the US labour market will start to worsen as the fiscal stimulus of the first half of 2026 subsides. Private sector jobs have not grown in six months. There is no problematic wage growth so demand pressures from the labour market are not the issue for inflation management.

What is particularly interesting is the fact that the US Treasury yields at 5, 10 and 30 years are all higher now than they were before the latest round of interest rate cuts, a total of 175 bps, took place from October 2024. The market determines the long-term rates that households and businesses pay and earn; the Fed only directly influences short-term interest rates at the front end of the yield curve.

While Powell is comfortable with US inflation being above 3% because of the supply-side dislocations (higher oil prices) that are elevating it, the same cannot be said for the RBA and Australian inflation. Our latest CPI Inflation came in at 4.6% which was up from 3.7% in the prior month. The so-called ‘trimmed mean’ that the RBA prefers was a more modest 3.3% and below the expected 3.5%.

The RBA increased its cash interest rate to 4.35%, the third interest rate increase at consecutive RBA meetings, going against the moves (or lack thereof) by other major central banks. Our cash interest rate at 4.35% is increasingly higher than the 3.5% to 3.75% in the US. Further, there is a strong market expectation that our rate will be 4.85% by the end of 2026. The RBA seems to be encouraging this view.

Powell thinks that the US interest rate is in the vicinity of a ‘neutral’ level, perhaps toward the upper end. If our interest rates get close to 5%, mortgagees will feel lots more pain on top of the reduction in spending power arising from the increases in petrol prices. These increases followed the global oil price shock and the lack of preparedness of the Australian government to have maintained adequate inventories of petrol to mollify such shocks.

The Federal Treasurer will hand down his budget in the second week of May. It seems that big changes will be made to cut expenditure from the NDIS which has grown like Topsy since it was introduced in 2016. At that time, it was hoped that the effect on the employment of formerly unpaid home helpers would have reduced the dependence on other government benefits. That reportedly has not happened with sufficient force. What started off as a $10bn per year scheme now costs over $50bn p.a.!

Government debt is headed towards one trillion dollars in two years. Twenty years ago, under Peter Costello’s stewardship, our debt was zero!

At last, the Treasurer has understood that taxing capital gains at anything like full income tax rates would be unfairly onerous as an allowance for inflation must be made for equity. It now seems Keating’s initial scheme, which taxed capital gains only above inflation at full income tax rates may now be restored. However, for lumpy assets like property, paying CGT on the full amount in the year that the sale is made would push many investors into higher tax brackets. Keating allowed averaging capital gains over five years to reduce this distortion.

The US-Iran and Israel-Lebanon (Hezbollah) wars are now entering their third month of conflict. Trump had initially speculated the conflict might be over in two weeks. The fall-out on US-Australia economic growth has not yet been significant but the impact on inflation has.

Consumer confidence has fallen, reflecting the impact of war, tariffs and inflation. The University of Michigan’s US consumer sentiment recorded its lowest reading since data started being collected in 1952! All the economic and military problems in those 74 years did not make consumers feel worse, at least by that measure, as they feel now!

At home the Westpac consumer sentiment index fell sharply but it is not yet quite as bad as it was in the pandemic or the GFC, but it is not that much better! The NAB business confidence index also hit a low only beaten by the GFC sentiment in the last three decades. However, the NAB business conditions index held up quite well.

Households and businesses are functioning but their expectations for the future are very weak indeed. As a result, they might spend less to help save for a rainy day. If they do so save, then growth will suffer.

There have been some excellent results in the first quarter of company earnings reports on Wall Street. These results propelled the S&P 500 to finish April at a record close! Earnings’ expectations, as collected by LSEG, our data provider, are also holding up well for Australia.

If Pakistan and China can facilitate a resolution to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the war more generally, the Australian and US economies could carry on for another good year in 2026. The growth in the creation of data centres in the US is a major factor in driving growth in the US and beyond. Government spending in both countries continues to be a fiscal stimulus that is working against monetary policy.

Asset classes

Australian equities

Australian equities (ASX 200) gained 2.2% in April, but that was insufficient to help the index achieve a positive year-to-date result. The loss y-t-d was -0.6%.

The Energy sector lost -2.7% in April on the back of a -3.7% loss in the price of Brent oil over the same period. The Materials sector, on the other hand, posted a strong gain of +4.3% over the month.

The gainers for the broader index were unusually mixed over April: IT (+13.3%), Property (+8.6%) and Financials (+2.9%), along with Materials, were the above-index leaders; Health (-8.7%), Staples (-4.7%), Utilities (-0.1%), and Energy recorded losses over April.

International equities

International shares also posted a wide range of capital gains over April. Japan’s Nikkei (+16.1%), the US S&P 500 (+10.4%), the German DAX (+7.1%), China’s Shanghai Composite (+5.7%) and Emerging Markets (+13.1%) all outperformed the ASX 200. The London FTSE (+2.0%) moved in line with our index.

Year-to-date, the Nikkei (+17.8%) and Emerging Markets (+15.1%) were the standouts among the indexes we follow more closely.

Bonds and interest rates

The Fed held its interest rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, as widely anticipated. As the prospective new chair, Kevin Warsh, is to be ushered in on May 15, the voting at the April meeting offered him an opportunity to build a new consensus among the other 11 voting members. Eight members voted for staying on hold, while 4 dissented. Three of the dissenters wanted to remove ‘easing bias’ from forward guidance.

The CME Fedwatch tool has priced no change to the Fed funds interest rate over the rest of the year at 76.3%, with 7.0% being attributed to the chance of an interest rate increase. There is a 16.6% chance of one or more interest rate cuts.

The 30-year US Treasury yield finished April at 4.97%, rising back to a level that greatly disturbed markets after the announcement of the reciprocal tariff policy 12 months ago.

These movements of yields at the long end of the US yield curve show how misguided Trump has been in demanding the Fed cut its Fed funds (Cash) interest rate. The market, and not the Fed, largely dictates the level of long-term interest rates.

The cash rates for the Bank of Canada (2.25%), Bank of Japan (0.75%), Bank of England (BoE) (3.75%) and the ECB (2.0%), among others, were ‘on hold’ in April, but the BoE also had a split decision (8-1).

After increasing its interest rate to 4.35% in early May, the RBA is clearly out of step with the major central banks on both direction and level. It has flagged further interest rate increases, but all of its major developed-world central bank peers remain ‘on hold’ despite facing the same global inflation in oil prices.

Other assets

Brent Crude (-3.7%) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (+3.6%) oil prices were more settled in April after aggressive increases in March.

The price of gold was flat (+0.1%) in April.

The price of iron ore rose +1.0% in April to consolidate a positive gain (+2.3%) for the y-t-d. The price of copper rose strongly in April by 5.4%.

The VIX US share market volatility index ended April almost in the normal range at 16.9 after peaking at 31.1 in the y-t-d.

The Australian dollar appreciated by +3.9% against the greenback over April, ending the month at $US0.7113. Our dollar traded for $US0.6693 at the start of 2026.

Regional review

Australia

The unemployment rate held firm at 4.3% in March. Total employment grew by 17,900, while full-time jobs grew by 52,500. Part-time job losses accounted for the difference.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) ‘measured’ a 25.4% increase in electricity prices for the year to March because of the way in which it factored in the government rebates. The ABS equivalent measure without the rebate effect was only 3.9!

The monthly rebate-corrected change in March was 0.0% following a 1% change in February. We calculate that this dubious rebate correction adds about 0.5% to the headline CPI inflation rate, which was 4.6% for the year to March. We think the RBA should ignore the current impact of the war on CPI and leave interest rates on hold. Indeed, no other developed nation saw fit to react in this manner. The US has been explicit in its reasoning behind being on hold.

China

China reported +5.0% economic growth against an expected +4.5% and government guidance of +4.5% to +5.0% for the year.

Industrial output rose 5.7%, but retail sales growth fell short of expectations at 1.7%. Industrial profits surprised the market with 15.5% growth, but much of this was due to the revaluation effect on its substantial oil inventories amid the large increase in global oil prices.

United States

There were +178,000 jobs created in April, but this number was boosted by +35,000 returning strikers and a substantial number of workers laid off due to adverse weather. The average monthly job gain over the last 12 months was +25,300. The unemployment rate was 3.4% and wage growth was +0.2% for the month and +3.5% for the year.

GDP growth for the December quarter 2025 was revised downwards to +0.5% from +0.7% resulting in +2.1% for the year. Powell referred to current growth as ‘solid’. Just after that press conference, growth for the March quarter 2026 came in at 2.0% (annualised) and 2.7% for the year.

Core Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, released with GDP growth, was 3.2%. While this figure is firmly above the Fed’s 2% target, the tariff inflation shock has yet to work its way through the system, and the effect of the oil price shock may still be increasing in magnitude.

Europe

EU inflation came in at 2.5%, up from 1.9%. UK growth was 1.0% for the year, but retail sales were at their lowest level since 1983.

The rest of the world

The Strait of Hormuz was only briefly opened for shipping between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. The US has blockaded Iranian ships from travelling to and from Iran.

It seems that the four leaders in the Middle East conflict are growing weary of the hostilities, but Iran has Trump on the back foot. With the US mid-term elections in November fast approaching, Trump needs a solution quickly to prevent the Republican Party from losing seats from their slim majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Trump has already claimed victory in the war, but few would agree with him!

Protecting what you’re building: How insurance supports a financial plan

Jera Conde · May 5, 2026 ·

When people think about financial planning, investments and retirement often come to mind first. Insurance tends to receive less attention, yet it plays a crucial role in protecting the progress you have already made.

Insurance is not about expecting the worst. It is about being prepared for the unexpected, so a single event does not undo years of planning and effort.

Protection that supports progress

Life does not always follow a straight line. Illness, injury, or a temporary loss of income can place pressure on even the strongest financial plans. Insurance helps provide financial stability during these periods, allowing you to stay on track while you focus on recovery or navigating change.

When integrated properly, insurance supports long-term goals such as maintaining lifestyle, managing debt, and protecting family security. It works alongside investments and savings by reducing risks that could otherwise derail your plan.

Why reviews matter

Insurance needs often change as your life evolves. Career growth, family commitments, asset levels and financial responsibilities all influence the level of protection that is appropriate. What suited your circumstances in the past may no longer reflect your current needs.

Regular reviews help ensure insurance remains aligned with your broader financial plan and continues to support your goals effectively.

The role of advice

A financial adviser helps ensure insurance decisions are considered in the context of your overall financial position. The focus is not on products, but on outcomes, balance, and peace of mind.

Protecting more than assets

Ultimately, insurance is about protecting momentum. It helps safeguard your progress and provides confidence that your financial plan can withstand unexpected setbacks.

By treating insurance as a core part of your financial plan, you can continue building your future with greater confidence and certainty.

Confidence vs Certainty: How to Make Financial Decisions Without Knowing the Future

Jera Conde · Apr 14, 2026 ·

When it comes to financial decisions, many people find themselves waiting for certainty. Certainty about markets, interest rates, government policy, or what life will look like in the years ahead. It’s understandable. Financial choices can feel significant, and no one wants to get things wrong.

The challenge is that certainty is rarely available. The future is always evolving. Confidence, however, doesn’t rely on having all the answers. It comes from having a plan that can adapt.

Confidence isn’t about being right all the time

Certainty is about prediction. Knowing exactly what will happen and when. Confidence is different. It’s about making thoughtful decisions based on what you know today, while accepting that change is inevitable.

Waiting for the perfect time or complete clarity often leads to inaction. Over time, this can delay progress, increase stress, and make future decisions feel harder rather than easier.

Confident financial decisions are usually built on a clear understanding of what matters most to you. They involve awareness of risks and trade-offs, and they are guided by a long term perspective rather than short term noise.

They don’t need to be perfect. They just need to be well considered.

The role of advice in building confidence

A key role of financial advice is helping people move forward when certainty is lacking. Advisers don’t predict the future, but they do help create structure and perspective so decisions aren’t made in isolation or driven by emotion.

Good advice helps ensure financial decisions remain aligned with long term goals, even as markets, rules and personal circumstances change over time.

Progress over prediction

Uncertainty is a natural part of financial life. Markets fluctuate, legislation evolves, and life rarely follows a straight line. A strong financial plan acknowledges this by focusing on progress rather than prediction.

If you find yourself waiting for certainty before acting, it may help to ask a different question.

What is a confident next step I can take based on what I know right now?

Often, that shift in thinking is what allows meaningful financial progress to begin.

What 2026 market volatility means for long‑term investors

Jera Conde · Mar 31, 2026 ·

Markets have been a little bumpy so far in 2026, and it’s natural to notice when values move around more than usual. While this can feel unsettling, volatility is a normal part of investing, especially during periods of economic and interest‑rate uncertainty.

The important thing to remember is that short‑term market movements don’t define long‑term outcomes. Markets rarely move in straight lines, even in strong years. Periods of ups and downs are expected, and history shows that staying invested through them has been key to long‑term growth.

Well‑diversified portfolios are built with this in mind. They’re designed to manage volatility across different market conditions, rather than react to day‑to‑day headlines. For long‑term investors, this structure becomes even more valuable when markets are unsettled.

Volatility can also create opportunity. When markets pull back, investors may be buying quality assets at lower prices, particularly through regular contributions or rebalancing, which can support long‑term returns over time.

The biggest risk during volatile periods is making decisions based on emotion. Trying to time the market or stepping aside after a downturn can make it harder to benefit when markets recover.

In years like 2026, a steady, disciplined approach remains the most reliable path forward. Staying focused on your goals, your timeframe and your strategy rather than short‑term noise is what matters most.

Market volatility in 2026 is a reminder that investing can be uncomfortable in the short term, but rewarding over the long term. Staying focused on your goals and maintaining a steady approach remains key.

Scams, AI and financial safety: how to protect yourself in 2026

Jera Conde · Mar 26, 2026 ·

Managing money has never been more digital, and in many ways, more convenient. But as technology advances, so too do the methods used by scammers. In 2026, artificial intelligence is playing a growing role in financial crime, making scams more sophisticated, more personal and harder to detect than ever before.

For investors and everyday Australians alike, understanding how scams are evolving is an important part of protecting your financial wellbeing.

AI has changed the way scams look and sound. Messages that once contained obvious spelling errors or generic language are now being replaced with highly polished emails, realistic text messages and even phone calls that can mimic trusted organisations or familiar voices. Some scams reference real events, recent transactions or publicly available information, which can make them feel legitimate at first glance.

This sophistication means that even cautious people can be caught off guard. Scammers are no longer relying on volume alone, they are relying on credibility.

Despite the technology behind them, many scams still share common traits. They often create a sense of urgency, encouraging you to act quickly to avoid a problem or secure an opportunity. You may be told there is suspicious activity on your account, that a payment needs to be confirmed immediately, or that a limited‑time investment opportunity is about to close.

These pressure tactics are deliberate. When people feel rushed or anxious, they are more likely to act before stopping to question what’s really going on.

Protecting yourself doesn’t require technical expertise, but it does require slowing down. Being cautious with unexpected emails, texts or phone calls is one of the simplest and most effective safeguards. Avoid clicking links or downloading attachments unless you’re certain of the source, and never share personal details, passwords or verification codes, no matter how convincing the request may seem.

If a message claims to come from a bank, government agency or financial provider, it’s always safer to contact them directly using details you already trust, rather than responding to the message itself. Taking a few extra minutes to verify a request can prevent months or even years of financial stress.

Your financial adviser can also play an important role in protecting you. If something doesn’t feel right whether it’s a communication you’ve received or an investment opportunity that seems unusually urgent or complex, checking before acting can make all the difference. An experienced adviser can help identify red flags and provide reassurance when something is legitimate.

As technology continues to evolve, so will scam tactics. Staying informed, sceptical of unexpected requests and comfortable asking questions are key to protecting your financial wellbeing. If you ever have concerns about a communication or financial request, it’s worth pausing and seeking advice before taking action.

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CA Financial Services Group Pty Ltd
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Information on this site may be regarded as general advice. That is, your personal objectives, needs or financial situations were not taken into account when preparing this information. Accordingly, you should consider the appropriateness of any general advice we have given you, having regard to your own objectives, financial situation and needs before acting on it. Where the information relates to a particular financial product, you should obtain and consider the relevant product disclosure statement before making any decision to purchase that financial product.

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