Australian economic update June 2026

The big picture

Middle East tensions ease

When we look around at all of the troubles in the world, it might seem somewhat incongruous. Yet all three major Wall Street indexes reached multiple record highs in May.

Markets are based on expectations, however. The US March quarter reporting season, which was just underway, was rather good, including forward guidance. It wasn’t just Magnificent 7 (Mag7) or Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks either.

The easing situation in the Middle East has likely helped too, though not quickly enough for most. A ceasefire remains ‘blurred’ at best, but no one has officially rescinded it. The Iran news agency, Fars, counters Trumps comments. Other news, however, filters out that an end to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may be at hand. One line of commentary suggests negotiators are separating the Strait’s reopening issue from other big issues, like nuclear proliferation, to try to reach an initial agreement.

Three months have passed since the start of the Middle East war. Many had billed the war as likely to last just 2 to 6 weeks. On one day in May, Iran allowed two China bound tankers to exit the Strait. Each carried a million barrels of oil on board.

RBA raises rates again

When we put the war to one side, order seems to be returning to the global economy, albeit slowly. The RBA announced a third straight increase in interest rates of 25 bps to 4.35%. The governor, Michele Bullock, made two important statements. First, she said it would take at least six months before inflation felt any impact from the recent interest rate rises. She still ‘wants to get ahead of the fight on inflation’ too. She wants to dampen any inflation expectations that might ensue from those that followed the onset of war.

Dr Sarah Hunter, chief economist to the RBA, gave a speech on inflation. She said that causing a recession, as in 1990/91, might be necessary to quell it. She earned her BA in 2002, so the chances are she was in primary school and living in the UK during that big recession (we had to have one). This raises a question: is a recession really the right solution to a relatively tame inflation problem?

Our latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reading came in at 4.2% p.a. down from 4.6% p.a. in the December quarter. Inflation fell in less than six months from the RBA rate action, which means the RBA can claim no part in that success, nor should it. As we have been arguing, the oil price spike will pass, and it has partly done so already. Interest rates in Australia have no impact on global oil prices anyway.

Inflation, rebates and the rate outlook

We continue to take our analysis a step further, and we object to the use of the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) method to adjust electricity prices from the impact of the energy rebates. Electricity price inflation came in at 22.5% from 25.4% because of the ‘rebate adjustment’. The ABS reported that the rate of this component of inflation would have only been 3.1% without the adjustment.

Our own calculations show the 4.2% headline CPI inflation read for April would have been 3.7%. The prior four months read 3.4%, 3.2%, 3.0% and 4.1% for December 2025 through to March 2026, respectively. On this basis, the RBA should not have raised interest rates three times this year. The ‘oil blip’ is already passing, though we could still see materially higher oil prices if the Iran war is not resolved in the nearer term. We emphasise that the February 3.0% reading was in the RBA target zone.

As a result, the most recent three interest rate increases are yet to work their way through the system. They will weigh on an already weakening economy as they do.

Labour market and policy risks

Our labour force report for April followed the inflation read. The unemployment rate jumped from 4.3% to 4.5%, making it the highest rate since 2021. An alarming upward trend in the unemployment rate started in mid-2022. Total employment fell in April by -18,600 and full-time positions fell by -10,700.

The Federal government seems intent on changing capital gains tax settings and the use of negative gearing. Both changes appear aimed at transferring wealth to those who won’t inherit it.

New Zealand recently tried removing negative gearing, with very poor responses on the rental market. Keating’s two-year experiment with removing negative gearing in 1985 also came with disastrous results. The lessons have not been learnt!

The RBA rate tracker tool on the ASX website now estimates 0% odds of an interest rate increase at the RBA’s June 16th meeting.

We think the RBA needs to rapidly unwind the three interest rate increases it has already imposed this year. It should then start lowering the OCR (overnight cash rate) toward neutral, or about 150 bps below where it stood at the end of May.

US labour market and consumer sentiment

US jobs’ data for April were stronger than expected. Employers created 115,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. However, there is still a strong downward trend in the 12-month averages of the monthly jobs’ numbers.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit a record low on release in April, then fell even further in May. The revision to that 74-year low took the latest index down from 48.2 to 44.8.

Social media may explain why that measure of consumer sentiment is lower than during the GFC and the 1987 stock market crash. It is even lower than during various wars fought around the Middle East. Information, good and bad, true and untrue, now travels the globe at unprecedented speed.

Fed policy and bond yields

US inflation, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred measure Private Consumption Expenditure (PCE), came in elevated but on expectations. The oil price spike took Brent Crude oil prices from $US61 per barrel at the start of the year to a peak of $US114 per barrel. Prices ended May at $US92.

Trump nominated the new Fed chair, who replaced Jerome Powell in May, with a view to bringing interest rates down. It is doubtful the new appointee, Keven Warsh, can make that wish come true. There are 18 other committee members who will express their largely unsupportive opinions at the June 16th to 17th FOMC meeting.

Importantly, the yield on US Treasurys, or US government bonds, at 10- and 30-years duration rose to uncomfortably high levels. It slipped a little only at the end of May.

The CME Fedwatch tool shows the market has factored in a 99% chance of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) staying ‘on hold’ in June. It estimates nearly a 50% chance of a hike later in the year.

China’s tariffs and trade

China’s economy has had to withstand a barrage of problems since US President Trump took office last year. The US has since rescinded his sweeping tariffs, but plenty of product-specific tariffs remain in place.

China had amassed an impressive inventory of oil, which must now be dwindling. It usually gets much of its oil from the Persian Gulf.

China reported retail sales growth of only 0.2% over the year, compared to an expected 2.0%. Industrial output performed better at 4.1%, compared to an expected 5.7%.

Wall Street has largely shrugged off the problems in the Middle East. All three major indexes hit record highs in May despite the uncertainty. Impressive results in AI, data centres and software no doubt buoyed the market, and many other strong results made the continued rally reasonably broad-based.

Asset classes

Australian equities

Australian equities (ASX 200) had a very quiet month compared to several other major indices. It grew only +0.8% in May making for a change of +0.2% over the year-to-date.

However, several sectors of the broader index made strong gains: Materials (+10.5%), Consumer discretionary (+4.6%), Property (+3.0%), Industrials (+2.0%) and IT (+0.6%) were the only ones of the 11 sectors to make gains in May.

International equities

The S&P 500 gained +5.1% in May and Japan’s Nikkei posted an +11.9% gain. The German DAX gained +3.3% and London’s FTSE was all but flat at +0.3%. China’s Shanghai Composite lost -0.1% in May. Emerging Markets gained +9.5% in the month.

Over the year-to-date, a couple of indexes have made stellar gains: Nikkei (+31.8%) and Emerging Markets (+26.0%). The S&P 500 gained +10.7% over the year-to-date.

Bonds and interest rates

The general mood across central banks, except for the RBA, has been to retain a holding pattern while the impact of oil price inflation is analysed.

The RBA, in an 8-1 decision, chose to raise interest rates again by 25bps to 4.35%. No other comparable central bank has raised interest rates at all in recent times. The RBA must understand it is on its own in following an aggressive interest rate tightening path. The Fed, for example, has even gone as far as saying it is on hold because ‘it is looking through’ the oil price inflation. RBA Governor Bullock keeps saying that she is trying to get ahead of the inflation problem.

The Royal Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was on hold at 2.25% compared to our latest rate at 4.35%. We would place the RBNZ policy stance at being slightly under the neutral rate, meaning it is trying to facilitate growth. The RBA is about 1.5% points above neutral.

Other assets

Brent Crude (-19.3%) and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (-16.9%) oil prices were down sharply on rumours that the Strait of Hormuz might be re-opened soon.

The price of copper was up strongly at +4.6%. Iron ore was down -2.2% and gold was flat at -0.6%.

The VIX US share market volatility index ended May in the normal range at 15.3 after peaking at 31.1 earlier in 2026.

The Australian dollar appreciated by +0.7% against the US dollar over May.

Regional review

Australia

The unemployment rate jumped sharpy to 4.5% from 4.3%, making it the highest rate since 2021 and a continuation of a strong upward trend since mid-2022.

Jobs growth over the year to April was only +0.9%, well below a rate necessary to achieve population growth. Full-time jobs also grew slowly at +1.2%.

The Federal Budget was met with much derision. Reverting the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) formula, taxing gains only above the rate of inflation, was not unreasonable, but creating a minimum tax rate for capital gains of 30% is out-of-left-field and causing significant voter pushback.

Negative gearing was also on the chopping block. However, such is the backlash, there have been calls for changes before the bill goes to parliament and even for a general election!

Electricity rebate confusion still mars inflation data, and elevated oil prices have added to the problem. However, the latest CPI inflation headline was down to 4.2% from 4.6%. We estimate that without the electricity rebate, CPI inflation would have been 3.7%, comparable to that in the US (3.8%). The Fed, however, has remained ‘on hold’ all year at a rate of 3.5% to 3.75%.

The wage price index grew by 3.3% over the last 12 months, but the real wage, after allowing for CPI inflation, went backwards at -0.8%. The purchasing power of the average wage is back to where it was 15 years ago!

China

China reported only +0.2% growth in retail sales compared to an expected +2.0%.

Industrial output was up +4.1% compared to an expected 5.7%.

China did manage to get two million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz on just one day in May.

United States

Jerome Powell chose to stay on as a governor of the Fed after his term as chair expired. We think he will play a very supportive role for the rest of the committee. His desire to remain for up to two years stems from his claim that he wants to wait out ongoing legal proceedings. Trump’s supporters have been waging these against him over the Fed building refurbishment.

Trump went to China to meet with President Xi and was accompanied by a few mega-tech CEOs. There were no positive outputs reported from the meeting.

Trump brought in his 10% global tariffs after the Supreme Court quashed his ‘reciprocal tariffs’. The Court has now ruled these replacement tariffs illegal too. Trump’s tariff policy is in tatters, and he now has little tariff revenue to support his policies. We think this is good for the economy. The revenue was coming from households and businesses, not, as Trump claimed, from foreign exporters to the US.

Europe

EU inflation came in at 3.0% from 2.6%. Core inflation was 2.2% from 2.3%.

UK growth was +0.6% in the March quarter from +0.2% in the December quarter. The UK unemployment rate inched up to 5.0% for the three months to March. Inflation, however, fell to 2.8% from 3.3%.

Rest of the world

The unrest continues in the Middle East, but at a much lower level than in the first two months of the war.

Japan growth was 0.5% for the March quarter following 0.2% in the December quarter. Inflation (ex-food) was 1.4%, down from 1.7% in the previous month.

The biggest sporting event in the world, the FIFA World Cup, starts in mid-June for about a month. The group stage matches are being held in the US, Mexico and Canada.

Ticket sales have not met expectations, largely it seems because of the pricing. Other reports suggest foreigners are wary about visiting the US during Trump’s unstable immigration policies.

Spain and France are almost joint favourites to lift the trophy with England in third place. Perennial achievers, Brazil, has odds of 10 to 1, Australia at 500 to 1 and NZ at 1,500 to 1. Haiti brings up the rear at 3,000 to 1.